While a low snowpack near growing areas and the conflict in Iran are affecting the seed industry, growers are expressing optimism this year.
Jodi Crosby, general manager of Tee-2-Green, reports favorable conditions in Oregon.
“From our perspective here in the Willamette Valley, the season is off to a positive start,” Crosby said. “We’ve experienced a relatively mild winter followed by a wet spring, and overall production fields are in excellent condition heading into the growing season.”
Crosby said no significant shortages were being seen in seed supply.
“Inventory levels from the 2025 harvest appear strong and should carry through until the 2026 harvest, which is encouraging for both growers and the market,” she said. “Weather-wise, last year’s seed crop was generally not impacted by any major adverse events in our region. Conditions were fairly stable, allowing for consistent production.”
The prospect of dry weather conditions is still unknown.
“Looking ahead, one item we are watching is the below-normal snowpack in the mountains, which could have implications for irrigation water later this year,” Crosby said. “Overall, the outlook is steady, with strong field conditions and adequate supply, though, as always, weather will play a key role in how the season ultimately develops.”
Micah Gould, turf product manager at Barenbrug, said, overall, the seed industry was in an encouraging position heading into the season.
“We saw solid movement in the fall, and while the spring sales cycle got off to a slower-than-usual start, momentum has been building,” Gould said. “Inventory levels for cool-season grasses have reached or are approaching correction, meaning the oversupply pressures of recent years are largely behind us, and the market is returning to a healthier balance. Supply disruptions for this category are minimal. Warm-season grasses present a slightly different picture; there are some isolated shortages in select varieties, though these are not widespread, and our team is actively managing availability for affected customers.”
As always, weather played a role in the success of the last growing season.
“Weather was a meaningful headwind for both major grass categories last season,” Gould said. “Cool-season grass production was challenged by a dry fall followed by an equally dry spring, which compressed yields below expectations across key growing regions. Warm-season grasses were similarly affected; a combination of high winds and dry spring conditions resulted in lower-than-normal yields. While neither category experienced catastrophic crop failures, the cumulative impact of these weather patterns contributed to the tighter supply situation we are navigating in isolated areas of the warm-season segment.”
Gould said for growers, so far it’s a year for cautious optimism tempered by a few notable concerns.
“Perennial cool-season grasses are still in recovery mode following a particularly harsh spring the prior year,” Gould said. “The good news is that fall moisture levels were favorable, providing a better foundation heading into winter.
“However, snowpack is currently sitting at roughly 30% of normal, which raises real questions about the potential for drought stress as the growing season ramps up. This is something we will be watching closely.”
Pressure from pests is another emerging challenge.
“The warmer-than-normal winter has created favorable conditions for vole and slug populations, and growers should be prepared for elevated activity that could impact stand quality and yields this year,” Gould said.
Turning to world events, impact is challenging to gauge.
“Energy costs remain a significant and somewhat fluid concern,” Gould said. “Elevated oil prices affect everything from equipment operation to transportation and fertilizer inputs, and while the ultimate impact on the season is still developing, it represents a real threat that growers and the broader supply chain will need to factor into their planning.”
LebanonTurf senior brand manager Jeremy Bigler reports the war in Iran is having at least one noticeable impact so far.
“The war in Iran is significantly impacting nitrogen prices,” Bigler said. “With the significant rise in prices of fertilizer we may see growers limit their fertility programs, which will have an impact on yield.
Aside from that, he is feeling positive about possible challenges facing the industry.
“Supply and demand for seed is coming back into balance for most of your cool-season grasses,” he said. “Creeping bentgrass is one area that is short this year. We are sold out until the fall harvest.”
Weather is not having unexpected impacts, Bigler said, “but we are seeing fewer clean lots with zero crop and zero weed seed.”
Darrell J. Pehr is GCM’s science editor